Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
I am not going to go back and look at all of the examples in the NHL of picks being traded. Assuming that your examples are representative...
Basically what you have demonstrated with this small group of trades is that the NHL GMs add a small premium, relative to the NFL charts.
If so, fine - that changes nothing. All it does it take the same ratios and multiply by a constant.
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My point is that based on NHL evidence, moving up to 4th from 6th is going to cost a lot more than 3rd round pick. I think Calgary's pick and the lower of the PIT/STL pick would be a reasonable expectation of what it might cost. If Calgary still had their 2nd they could probably build something around that, but they don't.
As for the chart, there isn't really a constant. Looking at the last 7-8 drafts, in the aggregate the premium paid by the team moving up seemed to be about 25%, but it was generally higher when you get into the top half of the 1st round and varied from about 5% to 50% overall depending on the trade.
It's a pretty good guide as long as you allow for the buyer's premium that seems to be present in the NHL, but without accounting for that it leads to a pretty large undervaluing of higher picks, especially top 5 or top 10 ones.