Quote:
Originally Posted by Erick Estrada
Can't compare the NFL and NHL drafts. A 4th round pick in the NFL can be a starter on day one of his first season while a 4th round NHL player faces much steeper odds of being a player and most don't make it period. They relativity only relates to the numerical order. When you trade a 2nd round pick in the NFL you are trading a starting player when you trade a 2nd round pick in the NHL you are trading a player that has less than a 20% chance of ever playing in the NHL. It's simply not the same and can't be compared when it comes to calculating relative values of top 10 picks.
Last week Raiders traded the #3 overall pick to move down to #13 and got only a mid 2nd round pick in return. No team in the NHL is going to trade a top 5 pick for a later 1st round pick to gain just a 2nd round pick. Simply not going to happen.
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I don't know how many different ways that I can explain that the details don't matter - it is simply a function of RELATIVE change WITHIN a set of data.
As for the trade, that is one specific trade. Also, statistics create a line (curve in this case) of best fit - that does not mean that every data sample will fall on the line. There is always variance.
The average height of a MHL player is 6'0" (or whatever it is). If you randomly choose one player, he could be 6'7" but that doesn't change the fact that if you choose one player randomly, you should expect him to be 6'0"