Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
The difference is certainty. In the NFL the level of certainty you are going to get a certain career out of a player is higher then in the NHL. The level of certainty also drops off at a different rate. Therefore the relative value between the picks is different.
If you accept the value of picks is a based on ceiling times probability of reaching for each sport for each draft position the curves you generate are going to be different.
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1) I strongly disagree about greater certainty, due primarily to injury, but it is still irrelevant anyway, and
2) even if they were more certain, the
relative differences would still distribute in a parabolic pattern.
3) another thing that you guys are missing by trying to distinguish differences with the NFL is that the pattern also applies to the NBA and to soccer in Europe.
So unless you want to make an argument that all of those leagues are somehow the same in the way that they differ from the NHL, and that difference somehow results in the relative distribution patterns of those leagues being similar but the NHL being different, then you have no argument.