Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
What you guys aren't getting is that it is completely irrelevant that the NFL is different than the NHL.
The draft value sheet is about the RELATIVE value of one pick to the next.
All of the details you list as to why the NFL is different than the NHL are - besides being blatantly obvious - completely inconsequential to the relative distribution of talent and the statistical patterns that will inevitably emerge from that.
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The difference is certainty. In the NFL the level of certainty you are going to get a certain career out of a player is higher then in the NHL. The level of certainty also drops off at a different rate. Therefore the relative value between the picks is different.
If you accept the value of picks is a based on ceiling times probability of reaching for each sport for each draft position the curves you generate are going to be different.