I took Darren Haynes' lottery simulation math (the guys on the Fan stole it this morning) and wrote a quick and dirty app to run it.
http://flamesfrom80feet.blogspot.ca/
It's by no means 100% accurate of course, but I thought I'd post it for everyone's enjoyment. I got the Flames on my first try.
http://www.fileswap.com/dl/Wwhz0WX38H/
