Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre "Monster" McGuire
As a fan, I'm not huge on putting ceilings on players. Obviously, we like to gravitate towards doing so even when we don't want to. It's a fan's way of making sense of the future.
With that said, we've got to keep in mind that TJ Brodie was got in the 4th round and he's beginning to look like a top pairing guy. Also, Shea Weber was got in the 2nd round. There are ton of examples where top pairing guys emerge from various rounds.
I'm just saying it's tough to place ceilings on young guys.
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Of course. As mentioned below, I do think of this as an approximation. The concept of getting a #1 D is unlikely is basically main point I'm getting at. Generally, the trend is that players within the 15-20 range are stable stock for becoming support players. It's tough for me to expect higher, even with a deeper draft as the draft's layout is an excellent top 10, followed by players of 1st round calibre down to the mid-2nd. The quality isn't terribly higher, but the quantity is large.
It's cool that their are exceptions, but I wouldn't place them as the likely scenario. I've been ecstatic at Brodie's progress and I hope the Flames end up with players similar to him more often. But, because the NHL drafts so early, I feel a lot of it comes down to development curves, which are unknown at the time of drafting...expect the rule, hope for the exception I guess you could say.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Da_Chief
Anything is possible, Weber out of 2nd round wasn't suppose to be a Norris candidate but he is. Do your homework and develop properly.
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A lot of luck was made with Weber's pick. When drafted, he was a shutdown man. That offence came after. There are players like that.
The problem these days with drafting is that there are no secret stashes of players for teams. The Flames used to pick lots of Europeans at a time when they weren't trusted. The Red Wings one upped that by finding unknown European leagues.
Anything is possible, but I don't think we can trust that it'll be likely. Ceiling pretty much means "projected ceiling", right? There's no way we know, with perfect certainty, what the actual ceiling is until after they retire.
If the Flames do better than expected, great. I'd love to see the 2013 draft be remembered as the one which would launch the team into a dynasty. I wouldn't trust it as one where so many holes can be fixed at once though, as would be suggested by drafting a #1 C and a #1 D.