Quote:
Originally Posted by Parallex
I don't think she's a time bomb but yeah you take her to the end... no one will vote for her. Makes it easier for you to win. As an aside I liked it better when there were only two finalists.
I thought that was awesome! Great move by Andrea, if he starts digging then you dig next to him... 50-50 chance that you get an idol (and more importantly prevent him from getting it). Made him waste his Auction benefit.
But yes to this being Cochrane's game to lose. He's the only person out there who has a winners resume. He's made no enemies, he has challange wins to his name, he's well liked, and people acknowlege him as a strategic player. No one else has that potent combination of attributes.
FWIW: He played that advantage perfectly. The aggregate advantage of switching at the first opportunity was the right call... and Reynold should have listened to him at RC. Statistically speaking once Jeff presented the three covered options Reynold had a 33.3% chance of getting the best prize. Had he exchanged his covered item for the choice of the other two he would have had a 50% chance. Reynold should have thanked him (Jeff)for the free 16.7% and made the switch.
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I've never fully understood this logic, same with how it was said in 21. You say there was a 50% chance of picking the better item by choosing one of the other two, but what if the best item WAS in the one he originally chose. If he gives that up, there is a 1/2 chance of picking the better item between the two, but still a 1/3 chance of actually picking the best item. The logic behind it just doesn't make sense to me, and it probably never will
