[Arsenal14]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

If you're saying the % of Canadians taken top 15 in the last 15 years who've busted is the same as the % of Russians taken top 15 in the last 15 years you'd be wrong.

Here's a list of Russians taken top 15 in the last 15 years:

...

24 players total
13 busts
3 superstars (all taken top two)

54% bust rate for Russian top 15 picks in the last 15 years.
If you include Kostitsyn and Radulov as busts since they abandoned the NHL then its 62.5%

I'm not going to compute the Canadian numbers but I can't imagine the bust rate being that high.

Maybe not quite, but it's not as far off as you might think. I just did the first 5 of the drafts you listed (1998-2002) and got 33 Canadian players chosen in the top 15 with 13 of them I'd call busts and another 3 that are pretty borderline (is Raffi Torres at #5 overall a bust?).

Full list in spoiler tags for length

Spoiler!

1998
Lecavalier,
Legwand,
Brad Stuart,
Bryan Allen (?),
Fata (!),
Malholtra (?),
Mark Bell (!),
Jeff Heerema (!),
Tanguay,
Michael Henrich (!),
Patrick DesRochers (!)
Mathieu Chouinard (!)

12 chosen, 6 busts, 2 questionable


1999
Brian Finley (!)
Kris Beech (!)
Taylor Pyatt
Jamie Lundmark (!)
Scott Kelman (!)

5 chosen, 4 busts

2000
Heatley* (born in Germany)
Torres (?)
Hartnell
Krahn (!)

4 chosen, 1 bust, 1 questionable

2001
Spezza
Weiss
Pascal Leclaire (!)
Dan Blackburn (!)
Hamhuis
Kobasew

6 chosen, 2 busts

2002
Nash
Bouwmeester
Upshall
Lupul
Bouchard
Steve Eminger (!)

6 chosen, 1 bust

33 chosen, 13 busts, 3 questionable