Quote:
Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction
I could be mistaken, but I thought that I recall reading somewhere that Nichushkin stated that was in fact his reason and he also stated that he intends to play in the NHL.
I don't doubt that he is sincere, but money has a way of complicating things. He'll end up having to take a pay cut for 3 years when it comes to signing his ELC in the NHL. It's one thing to talk the talk right now, but when it actually comes down to it in 2 years, will he still feel that way?
Having said that, I would not hesitate to take him outside of the top 10 assuming we still have our own pick in the top 10.
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It isn't just whether he'll come over at first. But you have to seriously consider the chance the kid takes his ball and goes home if things don't go well.
If he comes over and isn't ready will he accept a demotion to the AHL?
If he comes over and the coach wants more out of him defensively will he will just say screw it, I'm heading home?
If he comes over and has trouble adapting to the language and culture will he get homesick?
Unless a Russian has come over already to play in the CHL (this mitigates the cultural transition issue and shows a level of dedication to making the NHL), or is at the Ovechkin/Malkin level (which I don't believe this kid is) I think you always have to be worried about their motivation to stay in NA when they can go back to their homeland and make good money.
Obviously not every Russian will be like that but it is hard to tell ahead of time. You have to be pretty convinced about his character, determination and willingness to adapt and do what the coach and organization asks of him.
The risk isn't just if he'll come over in the first place. But also if he'll abandon the NHL when the going gets tough. There's just too much history with Radulov, Kostsitsyn, etc to rule it out completely. If this ends up being our highest pick ever you want to pick a kid that will stick around for a decade.
Am I biased against Russian picks? You bet I am. That is because in my time of following the draft closely in the last 15 years I'd say the bust rate of Russians taken in the top 15 is around 75%. I remember the hype around Zherdev (Redline had him #1 in 2003 IIRC), most skilled player in the draft! I remember the hype around Filatov. Is Nichushkin any more of a sure thing than those guys? Not convinced he is. He is bigger than them, I'll give you that.
Combine the bust rate of Russians taken high with the uncertainty about when he comes and if he could abandon the NHL and go back to his homeland and make big bucks and you have a much greater risk than picking a Canadian, Swede or Finn. Would I still gamble on him around the #8 pick or later? Yep, probably would. Would I gamble on him in the top 5-6? I wouldn't, I just think its too risky especially with some really high upside centres still available.
Pros
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-Size/strength/skill combo
Cons
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-plays a position that isn't our biggest need
-Russian risk factor. When will he come? Will he stay if the going gets tough?