Quote:
Originally Posted by Swayze11
Why does he have a better shot?
Why would you want more then a 1st?
What can I argue? I can't predict the future.
There is a reason he was taken in the 4th round. With his size, his odds automatically decrease in making the NHL. My argument is that he is not worth a 1st round pick. I am not saying he hasn't increased his value from where he was drafted.
All 29 other teams have a Gaudreau in their system. If you look at the % of players that make it to the NHL depending on what round they were drafted, its a significant drop off from round 1 to round 2.
If you can increase your chance of getting a full time NHLer, you do it. Again, I am not saying Johnny won't make it and for all I know he is the next St.Louis, but in terms of value at this very moment... how is he worth a 1st?
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the knock on Gaudreau when he was drafted was that he was small and didn't think he would be able to handle the NCAA game (he tore up the USHL when drafted). Playing in the NCAA as a TRUE freshman is a huge accomplishment, but the fact that he averaged over a point a game on a championship roster is unheard of. He did this playing against 20-24 year old men.
Not only did he do that but he was even better in his second year 1.5PPG, and was named to the 1st team all stars at the WJHC. (That is the best players in the world under 20) and I think he is still eligible next year. On top of that he was one of the best forwards for the best team in the tournament.
He has answered so many questions in 2 years that I don't think the Flames would accept anything less then a 1st round pick. I believe another guy comparable to his size was drafted 1st overall (Kane).
Does he still have a lot of risk? Yes, but not more then any 1st rounder considering his talent. But he is also 2 years further in his development and has unlimited potential. To make the NHL he will need to add about 15-20lbs of muscle, and completely change his diet. But that is a lot easier to do then coaching a guy to be a sniper/playmaker.