Quote:
Originally Posted by Nehkara
While an election campaign (not to mention the next 30 months before an election) is likely to change the dynamics significantly, at the moment it almost looks like this could become an even three-way race, and I would think almost certainly a minority government.
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I actually disagree.
The NDP are at a considerable disadvantage because they lack a core base of support. The
trend maps show that the Conservatives have their strong base in the Prairies and the Liberals their strong base in the Atlantic, but the NDP has nothing. They are, at best, in a dead heat in their highest support areas (BC, Quebec), and stagnant or losing ground most everywhere else.
I think that as long as the NDP is polling close to the other two, it actually increases the odds of another Conservative majority, since Mulcair's looney toons show wont be pulling support from the right. However, if they fail, that opens the door to a Liberal majority for the same reason - lost NDP support won't be going to the Conservatives. I think the most interesting aspect of the next two and a half years will be seeing how well Trudeau protects his left flank. That is the battleground that will determine who the Prime Minister is after the next election.