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Matty81 · 04-13-2013, 01:13 PM

I guess while most of the vote are NDPers, I think you are right to an extent Mike, last two elections the NDP were around 42% and they're polling at 49-50% right now so they have picked up a few disgruntled free enterprise folks. Bottom line is though, with the mini rise of the Conservative party who could never hope to win an election in BC in a normal year, the centre/right is so fragmented that they would lose anyway even if they recover that 7% so the protest vote is irrelevant. It's kind of similar to the federal scene in reverse with vote splitting, although the BC NDP are much more popular percentage wise than the federal conservatives ever managed so unity for the centre/right is more important.

Basically in order to win, Clark needs to pick up 18% in the polls by winning over the right and obliterating the Conservatives 10% and then win back 6-8% of what they've lost to the left as well. Pretty much an impossible task to appease both extremes.. though stranger things have happened.

Her early tact has been the tried and true scare tactics... "run from the NDP, they will screw us over". Hasn't appeared to gain much traction yet as her own credibility is very low. Crappy election for us in Kelowna, with all the wealthy Albertans who have retired here and the local farm/orchard vote our 3 ridings are among the most solidly right wing ridings in the province. If the NDP come to power we are going to face an uphill battle for public funding, especially with the Kelowna hospital campus getting so much money in recent years.

This is a great site to follow the numbers (people who enjoy politics probably already know of it):
http://www.threehundredeight.com/
They have regular updates on the BC election at the top and more detailed riding by riding projections as well.

04-13-2013, 01:13 PM	#9
Matty81 Franchise Player Join Date: Oct 2008 Exp:	I guess while most of the vote are NDPers, I think you are right to an extent Mike, last two elections the NDP were around 42% and they're polling at 49-50% right now so they have picked up a few disgruntled free enterprise folks. Bottom line is though, with the mini rise of the Conservative party who could never hope to win an election in BC in a normal year, the centre/right is so fragmented that they would lose anyway even if they recover that 7% so the protest vote is irrelevant. It's kind of similar to the federal scene in reverse with vote splitting, although the BC NDP are much more popular percentage wise than the federal conservatives ever managed so unity for the centre/right is more important. Basically in order to win, Clark needs to pick up 18% in the polls by winning over the right and obliterating the Conservatives 10% and then win back 6-8% of what they've lost to the left as well. Pretty much an impossible task to appease both extremes.. though stranger things have happened. Her early tact has been the tried and true scare tactics... "run from the NDP, they will screw us over". Hasn't appeared to gain much traction yet as her own credibility is very low. Crappy election for us in Kelowna, with all the wealthy Albertans who have retired here and the local farm/orchard vote our 3 ridings are among the most solidly right wing ridings in the province. If the NDP come to power we are going to face an uphill battle for public funding, especially with the Kelowna hospital campus getting so much money in recent years. This is a great site to follow the numbers (people who enjoy politics probably already know of it): http://www.threehundredeight.com/ They have regular updates on the BC election at the top and more detailed riding by riding projections as well.