I actually think Dawn is playing a masterful game, and is a shoe in to win it all if she makes it to the end.
Usually I hate when middle-age floaters coast to end and find a way to win without making any real moves (like Tina in season 2 and Sandra in her two victories); but Dawn has actually make a couple great moves in the last couple episodes. Her alliance would have been on the outs if she didn't have the fortitude to expose Corrine last week. Then this week, even after she voted for Corrine, Malcolm still trusted Dawn enough to have Reynold expose his idol to her. She's done a great job at playing both sides, when really she is completely on Phillip's side.
Andrea, Phillip, and Malcolm all seem like threats to varying degrees, but no one see's Dawn as a threat yet despite the moves she has made. It's too bad it looks like she might suffer some sort of breakdown next week, as she is playing a very underrated game.
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