Quote:
Originally Posted by darthma
^^^ This confused the heck out of me... because it is not a proper reflection of the probability of drafting first. Is this just some random guy doing a stats project?
So... I googled and saw this (which I'm sure has been brought up before) - http://www.torontosun.com/2013/03/04...-draft-lottery
I do not know what the probability of teams moving up and down the draft order aside from the first pick. Given that this is likely to be important down the stretch fail, it'd be nice to have this fully spelled out somewhere. |
The simulator was just using the 2005 draft style they used last lockout, made while this season wasn't looking good.
There's just the single lottery now. All non-playoff teams enter it but aren't weighted equally (i.e. worst overall has best chance to win at 25%). The team that wins it moves to first overall. The rest of the teams are either not affected (they were drafting behind the lottery winner anyways) or are pushed back a single spot (they were drafting ahead of the winner pre-lottery).