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Originally Posted by stormchaser
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^^^ This confused the heck out of me... because it is not a proper reflection of the probability of drafting first. Is this just some random guy doing a stats project?
So... I googled and saw this (which I'm sure has been brought up before) -
http://www.torontosun.com/2013/03/04...-draft-lottery
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The likelihood a team can win the first overall pick, from the club with the fewest points to 14th, is as follows: 25%, 18.8%, 14.2%, 10.7%, 8.1%, 6.2%, 4.7%, 3.6%, 2.7%, 2.1%, 1.5%, 1.1%, 0.8% and 0.5%.
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I do not know what the probability of teams moving up and down the draft order aside from the first pick. Given that this is likely to be important down the stretch fail, it'd be nice to have this fully spelled out somewhere.