Just looking back using hockeydb, it looks like most drafts have at least one player picked in the top 5 that is average, and many that don't pan out at all. (For this discussion, I would consider an average player picked in the top 5 as a bust).
Just a rough estimate, but I would say that there is probably a 10-20% chance that a top 5 pick does not turn into a star, and of course, a much smaller chance that player becomes a superstar.
The thing that separates the good teams is not their first rounders, but how they do outside the first round. Something that scares me is that even though the 1st and 2nd overall picks have a better chance than the rest, with no real concensus player going 1st, it makes me think the statisitcal "bust" could end up anywhere in that top 5.
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"A pessimist thinks things can't get any worse. An optimist knows they can."
Last edited by FlamesAddiction; 04-04-2013 at 08:13 AM.
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