Quote:
Originally Posted by InCoGnEtO
I found this on another forum, and thought I should share it with this board. It goes to show how valuable a 1st round pick really is:
Summary:
- A first round selection is far more valuable than any other selection – a player taken in that range has a slightly better than 60% chance of turning out to be a “decent” or better player; nearly three times the rate of the second round.
- Second and third round picks are a cut above the rest of the draft, although the chances of landing a “decent” or better player are quite low: a little better than 1 in 5 for the second round, and slightly better than 1 in 7 for the third round.
- There’s little difference between picks made from the fourth to ninth rounds of the draft; over those rounds players are roughly half as likely to develop into a “decent” or better player as a third round pick.
Full article:
http://canucksarmy.com/2011/3/10/the...nhl-draft-pick |
An interesting article. I perfer Cullens take further down where he divides up the first round into the top 3, 4-6 and then the rest of the first round. As saying 60% of 1st rounders turn into decent players is a little misleading when 80% of the top 5 turn into decent players and less of the the rest of the round.
The interesting opinion in the article was the idea that trading down in the first round outside of the top 10 picks is a good idea because at that point there is a marginal difference between the quality of players so an extra pick is worth is worth more than the marginal difference between a 16 and a 20th pick.
Also interesting that seconds and thirds share similar value.