Originally Posted by octothorp
With the lineup as currently assembled, I'd say 50/50 is about right, maybe a little better.
Bargnani's value is going to be based on factors other than his recent play: particularly, someone desperate to move an even worse contract (like Boozer or P. Gasol).
I like the odds of Valanciunas being a beast next year. Another good offseason working with Sabonis and spending time in the weight room would do wonders. It looked to me he came back a few pounds heavier and stronger after his injury. The way he battled Drummond and Monroe last game was really impressive. His teammates need to look for him more. I think Gay is one of the few Raptors players who actually makes a point of feeding JV, possibly because he's developed that habit from playing with Marc Gasol.
Ross I still like. I think he can be an incredibly useful roleplayer, especially given that he doesn't need the ball in his hands to be effective, unlike most Raptors.
Lowry, I'm up in the air on. Those who have been on this thread a while know that I was a huge proponent of them getting Lowry, but I have a hard time evaluating if he's the right PG for this team. It's just such an isolation-heavy offense that it's difficult to see any PG really making a big impact. Maybe they just need a 3-point shooting PG, and run the offense through the wings? He shows good handles in the lane, decent awareness, and there's no reason why he can't be a good pick-and-roll PG, unless it's just a lack of comfort. He should make that his #1 offseason priority.
I don't really agree with the suggestion that most of the other crummy teams from a few years ago are riding high. In the east two years ago, the non-playoff teams were essentially the same as this year, with Brooklyn the only big exception, and Milwaukee improving from first team out to last team in. Cleveland is the only non-playoff team in the east that I think will improve faster than the Raptors.
I think the Raptors need to go with the current core into next season (the current core being Gay, DeRozan, Lowry, Johnson, Fields, Valanciunas, and Ross), and then make a decision in the first month about whether that's a core you can build around. If they show that they can be a .500 roster out of training camp, that's good enough to build around for the time being. Develop the current pieces, aim for the playoffs next year, and see if they can resign Lowry and Gay on a package deal for $30 million. That will set them up for a situation where in 2015 offseason, they'll have Gay, Lowry, DeRozan, Ross, Valanciunas, plus two more first-round draft picks all signed for about $50 million, and depending on where the cap is at, about $20 million to spend on one elite UFA. Hopefully by that time, this core will have had two years in the playoffs, and it becomes an appealing destination for a big UFA PF to come in and be the finishing piece. Let's say they make a pitch for Kevin Love at around $19 million (basically out-bidding everyone else, because that's what you've got to do to get him). Here's your hypothetical 2015-16 Raptors roster:
Valanciunas/MLE veteran
Love/2014 rookie
Gay/bi-annual exception veteran
DeRozan/Ross
Lowry/2015 rookie
As an alternate to going after a big UFA, they've got nearly $20 million in expiring contracts that they can move for some team looking to shed salary. The key to planning to contend around 2015 is that this is when Miami, New York, and possibly Brooklyn will all have multiple big contracts expiring and will need to decide whether they want to pay the insane repeater tax rates into the future, or take a step back to retool.
I'd be okay with the Raptors taking a shot with a core like that. In the meantime, they can still work to trade Bargnani, as long as whatever bad contract they bring back doesn't extend past 2015.
Of course, if the Raptors struggle out of the gate next year, then you're in blow-up mode. Get value for Lowry while you can, play hardball on Gay's next contract, use Johnson as trade bait (I agree with fleury that he's the Raptors' best bargaining chip, though I wouldn't move him yet).
Also, I'd seriously consider switching up head coach. I liked Casey in his first year, and hated him this year. If the team struggles out of the gate next season, then perhaps he should be first to go.
|