Herschel is as good as gone. He's going to be following the group, and is too slow / injured to keep up, so he's going to wait in the shadows with a shotgun and off a few of the Governor's men (but not before a dramatic scene with his daughters and telling Maggie he approves of the marriage). Then as the rest of the group retreats, he gets gravely injured from a bullet to the back, at which point the Governor is going to tell him that "he did pretty good for an old cripple". Then he'll just shoot Herschel in the head.
All speculation of course, but I would peg Herschel's death probability at 95%.
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