[the2bears]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Ok, try this:

You flip a coin - you have a 50% chance at heads.

You flip a second time - you have a 50% chance again.

However, your chances of winning both are 50% x 50% = 25% (1 time in 4)

Now to win a third time, you have to have already won twice and you have to win again, so 25% x 50% = 12.5%

Still with me? So let's apply that to the Oilers:

Year 1 - 48% chance of winning the lottery.

Year 2 - 48% chance of winning the lottery. Chance of winning both: 48% x 48% = 23%

Year 3 - 18.6% chance of wnning the lottery. Chance of wnning all 3: 23% x 18.6% = 4.3%

This is correct.