Quote:
Originally Posted by The Yen Man
Why though? Under the old rules, a team finishing last has roughly 48.2% chance to win the lottery since a team can only move up a maximum 4 spots. So any team after the 5th team that wins the lottery, the last place team still picks first. So essentially, you have almost a 1 in 2 chance to pick first if you finished last. You're right that the Oilers were a bit lucky in they year they finished 29th. But I would hardly say it's extremely lucky. It would be like saying winning a rock paper scissors contest 3 times in a row is extremely lucky.
Under the new rules, it is now purely a 25% chance to win the lottery if finishing last overall. I agree it's less than the 48.2%, but again it's not extremely lucky if a team goes 3 years consecutively winning it.
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Ok, try this:
You flip a coin - you have a 50% chance at heads.
You flip a second time - you have a 50% chance again.
However, your chances of winning
both are 50% x 50% = 25% (1 time in 4)
Now to win a third time, you have to have already won twice and you have to win again, so 25% x 50% = 12.5%
Still with me? So let's apply that to the Oilers:
Year 1 - 48% chance of winning the lottery.
Year 2 - 48% chance of winning the lottery. Chance of winning
both: 48% x 48% = 23%
Year 3 - 18.6% chance of wnning the lottery. Chance of wnning
all 3: 23% x 18.6% = 4.3%