Quote:
Originally Posted by ramizle
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
Assuming a team finished 30th, 30th and 29th over 3 seasons, the chances of them getting 3 1st overall picks, under the prior rules, was 4.3% (48 x 48 x 18.8).
The odds now are 1.2% (25 x 25 x 18.8)
If they keep the rules the way they are now, there is virtually no chance that a team will ever get 3 consecutive 1st overall picks again
Also, the fact that the Oilers did it - even under the old rules - is really, really lucky
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Why though? Under the old rules, a team finishing last has roughly 48.2% chance to win the lottery since a team can only move up a maximum 4 spots. So any team after the 5th team that wins the lottery, the last place team still picks first. So essentially, you have almost a 1 in 2 chance to pick first if you finished last. You're right that the Oilers were a bit lucky in they year they finished 29th. But I would hardly say it's extremely lucky. It would be like saying winning a rock paper scissors contest 3 times in a row is extremely lucky.
Under the new rules, it is now purely a 25% chance to win the lottery if finishing last overall. I agree it's less than the 48.2%, but again it's not extremely lucky if a team goes 3 years consecutively winning it.