Quote:
Originally Posted by mykalberta
I still dont think the NDP can form a majority unless there is a severe Liberal collapse but who knows. IF the CPC can balance the budget I think they will get majority again.
For me poll numbers when no one is seriously talking politics dont mean much. Remember, the CPC only need 38% +/- a few pts to form a majority if other factors are still in play and the electoral map doesnt change much between now and the next election.
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Even if the Liberals don't do well, there's no way the NDP could make a majority. The seats just aren't there and they're already losing popularity. Mulcair is no Layton, and the luster is off in much of Quebec and some will head back to the BQ. The prairies will never vote NDP.
It actually might be the perfect storm for the CPC, but my money is on another conservative lead minority government with the NDP and BQ taking a good portion (or at least enough) of the seats that the Liberals have a shot at, and ruining their chances at forming a government. NDP will lose a few, CPC will lose a few more than that, BQ will gain a few, and Libs will obviously gain many, but not nearly enough. They will need more than one election to get back into the game.
The more interesting question might be will the Libs gain enough to become the official opposition again?