The difference between a top 10 or even top 15 pick and Ryan O'Reilly is potentially significant.
Kopitar, Bernier, Brandon Sutter, Ryan McDonough, Tyler Myers, Erik Karlsson, Cam Fowler, Jonas Brodin, Alex Semin... Those are all examples of players picked after 10 (many of them are 11th overall picks) but before 15th. That is also ignoring the 2003 draft where Jeff Carter, Dustin Brown and Brent Seabrook went between 10 and 15.
The chance of drafting one of those players is less certain the farther from the top 5 you get, but it is still significant. For example, the only players Calgary has drafted with an impact in the last decade have been 9th and 13th overall.
When you're talking about a potential top 5 pick, the potential return is that much greater.
I like O'Reilly. I love defensive minded players. Having said that, I think there is a big difference between him and Matt Duchene, a top 5 pick. Landeskog vs. O'Reilly is certainly up for debate, but I am inclined to take Landeskog. The difference between Duchene and O'Reilly is that O'Reilly put up 55 points as a 21 year old. Duchene did it at 18. While O'Reilly has been tearing it up since he started the season with 8 points in 10 games, Duchene has blown him out of the water with 31 in 28. That's the potential difference the Flames are looking at.
There are countless examples. A bird in the hand is often worth two in the bush, but this Flames team needs more than a sparrow or two at this point, all trading for O'Reilly would've done for this team is delay the franchise turn around another year while a team like Colorado potentially picks twice in the top 10.
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