Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis
I actually think minority is best case scenario either way for the CPC in 2015. Considering their poll numbers at present are in the high 20's/low 30s, they'll need a massive turnaround by 2015 to avoid not losing the election straight up, so to me a majority is probably a pipe dream.
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No they wouldn't....at least based on current numbers.
Its a honeymoon period right now with Trudeau and the Liberals, but I have little doubt he will skewer them right back to Ignatieff or lower levels once the rubber hits the road unless he does a massive about face and starts to actually "lead" a party instead of spewing nothing but divisive comments.
Even if his numbers dont go down, his fight will be in Quebec against not only the NDP who they still trail, but a renewed BQ party who are 3 points behind. Again we will see a huge split vote there, and unless a patsy leader can convince the majority of Ontario he is a better choice than Harper....at the very least the CPC wins an easy minority and quite possibly squeeks out another majority.
I think the single biggest weapon the CPC has right now is Trudeau himself. No question he best start getting prepared for what will be coming from both the CPC and maybe even more intensely from the NDP as they are not going to want to see their power base taken away from them.
This is all subject to change of course depending on what happens economically and the liklihood of some sort of scandal among the CPC (they have all had them in recent majorities...sigh) but right now the CPC braintrust has to be absolutely loving what they are seeing.