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Originally Posted by l33t_hax0r
Scoring chances definitely seem too subjective. What I do think would be more objective is to look at data on shot location. I'm no expert, but I'm guessing that shots taken from certain areas of the ice have a better chance of going in (slot vs point).
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The people that track scoring chances on the 'net mainly use this definition:
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A clear play directed toward the opposing net from a dangerous scoring area - loosely defined as the top of the circle in and inside the faceoff dots (nicknamed the Home Plate), though sometimes slightly more generous than that depending on the amount of immediately-preceding puck movement or screens in front of the net. Blocked shots are generally not included but missed shots are. A player is awarded a scoring chance anytime he is on the ice and someone from either team has a chance to score. He is awarded a "chance for" if someone on his team has a chance to score and a "chance against" if the opposing team has a chance to score.
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Intuitively, a weak wrister from the point probably has a lower probability of finding the back of the net than a snapshot from the slot. Of course, we see a buttload of shots from the point get redirected or find their way through a screen. We also see plenty of Flames (and to be fair, other players around the league) get the puck in the slot and shovel it into the goalie's pads or fire a howitzer into the crest on the goalie's chest.
Adding data on shot type and shot location would probably be useful but it is ridiculously difficult to track. Maybe when SportsVU (
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...cal-revolution) comes to the NHL that will change. Many fear, however, that NHL teams with this kind of data would keep it close to their vest and not share it though.