Quote:
Originally Posted by Loyal and True
The probability is very low. I would not bet a significant amount of money on it, unless I was prepared to lose it.
But the possibility exists. I have seen many teams go .625 over 22 games, regardless of their "playoff worthiness".
With every subsequent loss, the odds get infinitely more slim. My opinion is that, if Caged Great is correct in his prediction that the Flames lose next two games, the odds become so small that only an immediate 8 game win streak would make up for the 5 consecutive losses. I don't remember the last time a mediocre team won 8 straight games, but I know it is far, far more unlikely than a .625 run over 22 games. But hey I am a fanboy who will still cheer for the 8 wins and then accept defeat and move on to the trade deadline.
Likewise, a winning streak at this time would significantly increase the probability to a more palatable level, but we would still not likely be a favorite to make the playoffs. I accept that.
Do we insist that an event must have favourable odds as a precondition for it to ever occur?
The funny thing is, "everything that has happened over the last few seasons" actually demonstrates that a streak can happen over a span of 20+ games.
I know. This team drives me insane.
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Ha. Maybe with the short season, they can go on the run without enough time for the following late season collapse.
