Quote:
Originally Posted by FlameZilla
All this talk of dealing everyone to hoard picks has me looking at our draft history. Looking at the 1997 draft on hockeydb I remember the Flames brass being excited that we had so many picks (6th overall, three 2nd rounders, a 3rd rounder, two 4th rounders etc). Dan Tkaczuk played 19 NHL games for us and NONE of the other selections played a single game for us. Our drafting has improved, but it's still a huge gamble.
Edit: picks Ryan Ready & Erik Andersson from the 97 draft played a combined NHL 19 games
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Drafting is always a gamble - but it is one that can be mitigated. Expand your scouting department, and enhance your development program, and you help increase the odds of getting 'wins'.
As you can see from at least every Stanley Cup champion, you simply can not win the cup if you can't draft well.
Flames have been putting much more of an emphasis on the draft, and also on developing. People still point at the Flames and say "They are never able to draft or develop well", but that is not quite accurate any longer - though only a few more years will really prove it one way or another.
Teams that traditionally don't draft well are teams that traditionally don't make drafting and developing a priority, and don't invest more into those areas. You still end up with 'duds' - some players just don't develop, regardless of how much opportunity you give them (Irving is a good example here - he has had loads of opportunity, but every single time he has experienced a 'challenge', he seems to fail. I don't fault the Flames for Irving. I really don't know what else they could have done to develop him further realistically.).
Some picks do fail. Tkazkuk failed not because of the drafting side, but perhaps through development or just 'bad luck' in injuries. I am not sure what the history was with his concussions (was he rushed back?). Concussions weren't something the league as a whole dealt with well anyways in those days.
Fata was a fairly highly touted prospect as well if memory serves - but it seems scouts were salivating at his speed more than anything else. He really didn't have any hockey sense, and thus didn't really even come close to meeting expectations. Development issue? I think it was poor scouting on him to begin with - much like Daigle (but for different reasons - behavioral assessments weren't really done as much back then as they are now, but the kid definitely had the talent to start with to become a franchise player).
Now you have guys like Kabanov that supposedly had "top 3 skill" in their respective drafts, but fell hard due to their behavioral assessments (and also Russian Factor at times).
Either way, the more a team spends on drafting and development, the more 'good picks' they come away with. There will always be 'duds' - but the frequency with which you end up with NHL players increases as you spend in those areas.
Not sure if anyone wants to take this and really examine it, but I would bet that in any given year, a team will select a higher ratio of NHL players when they have invested more heavily than a team that doesn't. Not even just the number of picks (which helps greatly!), but even just the same number of picks.
The Flames may indeed not be 'quite there' with their program, but at the very least it is moving in the right direction. If the Flames 'blew it up' a few years ago, they would probably have gotten more picks than if they do so now, but I am not convinced they would end up with more NHL players than they would if they decide to do it this year.
Also, some drafts are really strong (either in depth or at the top end). Some are weak. This draft is wonderful at the top end. For a team like Columbus, they should do well (as long as they have increased their scouting department - they haven't done that well drafting in the past either, even with high picks and increased number of picks).
How is Edmonton's scouting department? How does it compare with Calgary's? How does Calgary compare with teams that are thought of as 'good drafting teams' like Detroit or St.Louis? Are they close to those teams, or are they more like the Islanders or Panthers?
In the end, Calgary will always be thought of as a poor drafting and development team until they end up with at least a handful of impact players and more established players in the NHL. I don't hear anything about Edmonton being a good drafting team. I just hear they have some high-end 1st over-all prospects. There is definitely a difference.
I just hope that whenever Calgary decides to rebuild (or is forced into it) that the draft is considered a good draft with franchise players. Flames have made GREAT picks out of poor drafts (the Derek Morris pick was really good, the Nystrom pick was very good - and neither one of those players were thought of highly ever).
At any rate, I hope that things have improved enough that whenever the Flames end up acquiring extra picks, they find themselves in a strong draft.