Quote:
Originally Posted by blankall
In 2012, here were the odds of winning the lottery:
25.0% - Columbus Blue Jackets - 65 points
18.8% - Edmonton Oilers - 74 points
14.2% - Montreal Canadiens - 78 points
10.7% - New York Islanders - 79 points
8.1% - Toronto Maple Leafs - 80 points
6.2% - Anaheim Ducks - 80 points
4.7% - Minnesota Wild - 81 points
3.6% - Carolina Hurricanes - 82 points
2.7% - Winnipeg Jets - 84 points
2.1% - Tampa Bay Lightning - 84 points
1.5% - Washington Capitals (from Colorado) - 88 points
1.1% - Buffalo Sabres - 89 points
0.8% - Dallas Stars - 89 points
0.5% - Calgary Flames - 90 points
The Flames probably were going to finish in that 4.7 to .5% range. Sorry, you don't give up on the chance to acquire a player like O'Reilly for those odds.
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If you keep your first and acquire more by dealing your most productive players, you are increasing your odds by a) having more kicks at the can and b) improving your draft position and probability in the lottery by turning players like bouwmeester into a pick anywhere from 10-30.
Who knows, maybe you have more than 2 firsts and multiple second rounders at the draft after selling off some big ticket players. Maybe your own first is #4 after the lottery. Maybe you can turn one of. Your multiple second rounders and one of your late round firsts to move up to have the third or fifth pick as well as the fourth.
In the end I have no idea whether this particular deal is worth it. I think in general, if you can find a player like o'reilly for a first and a third, I think you pull the trigger. Wat it says about the general course for the franchise is another thing entirely. It's more evidence they do not view the draft as necessary for success and are only interested in contributing roster players and nearly there prospects.
This is shaping up to be another year like the 2010 draft. Should have been sellers, weren't, paid for their mistake by not having a pick until #64.
I really, really hope I am wrong.