[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by troutman

I'm not sure about that. Teams seem to be happy to put their top lines out against Iginla's line, and they generally out-score us.

Truth.

Supported by real data, thanks to Metro Gnome:

http://flamesnation.ca/2012/8/20/wha...-jarome-iginla

This is all very much in line with the decline in Iginla's general effectiveness which I began to chart in 2010. A couple of seasons ago, he was merely average at controlling play and lagged behind many of his peers in terms of stature and pay across the league. Now, Iginla has entered liability territory at even strength - he consitently yields shots and possession against while he's on the ice and almost universally pulls down his linemates ability to control play as well.

No doubt some will ask what the value of a shot/possssion based inquiry is when Jarome is still scoring 30+ goals and 60+ points per year. I'll respond with a metaphor -

When a coach gives a player ice time, it is essentially an "invesment" in the player. The potential profit is shots/chances/goals for. The potential expense is shots/chances/goals against. The goal is to have the profit margin exceed the expenses as often as possible and in aggregate.

There are some factors that can help overcome a negative shot differential so that the most important line item - "goals" - remains in the black. Specifically, high SH% and SV% can help mititgate possession issues. Of course, skaters only exert modest influence over those things and they are mostly swamped by issues of randomness and variance.

Meaning - to overcome Jarome's issues of volume (shots/chances against) Calgary will need to control the frequency of goals (the percentages) to a non-trivial degree ir order to come out even or above water. And even though Alex Tanguay is one of the few skaters who can probably amp his linemates shooting by about 1% above normal, the truth is it would take a season of extraordinary luck (well above average percentages) for Iginla's ice time not to cost the club dearly in terms of goal differential.

To get back to the inital question - Iginla can likely continue to put up 30+ goals and 60+ points in the next few years if the team keeps giving him a lot of ice time. The issue is, Jarome's an asset now in the red; his ice time (and therefore production) costs the team shots, possession, chances and goals against. And it will likely continue to do so more and more now that he has crested 35 years old.