Quote:
Originally Posted by VANFLAMESFAN
Remember the 4-0 start a couple seasons ago? The team looked way worse in those games than they have so far this year and they missed the playoffs.
Starts are obviously important, but they're not the be all, end all. I'll take good performances and a couple lost points if it means they figure things out as opposed to crap play that masks team issues that gets a couple more points.
Not to go all Alain Vigneault here, but it's about the process.
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Well regardless the real test will be on the road, starting with these 3 upcoming games. The Flames are a team that has had the follow road records over the past 5 years:
11/12 - 3 games under .500
10/11 - 2 games above .500
09/10 - 5 games above .500
08/09 - 1 game under .500
07/08 - 2 games over .500
They have averaged 1 game over .500 over those 5 season, or roughly a 20-19-2 record good enough for a .512 winning percentage.
If they get a .512 winning percentage this year (hit their average over the past 5 years) that will be good enough for 25 points. They probably will need somewhere around 55-56 points to make the playoffs, so that would leave them having to get 27-28 points in their remaining 19 games at home (13-5-1 record at home or a 14-5 record).
If they match their best road winning percentage from the past 5 years this year (.561 on the road) they would get 27 points road points and would only have to go 12-6-1 or 13-6 at home the rest of the way.
If the Flames match their road record from last year hypothetically, they would get 22 road points and would have to go either 15-4 (.790) or 15-3-1 (.816) at home to make the playoffs.
Unless something incredibly odd happens (both based on Flames history and league wide history as it relates to road records) the Flames will have to play a minimum of .658 home hockey the rest of the way, possibly as high as .816 home hockey to make the playoffs.
It is definitely possible that the Flames could make the playoffs, it just seems unlikely based on team history, NHL statistical averages and math. Sadly for the most part stats and math ignore the process at the end of the day.