Quote:
Originally Posted by JayP
Because shooting % (like a lot of statistics) takes a number of years to normalize. Stamkos has shot at a 17ish% pace and above for three years in a row now. Combine that with the fact that you can clearly see his shooting ability is the best of the generation and it's logical that he's a guy that has a shooting percentage way above the pack. Eberle just isn't a generational talent so there's no reason to believe it's not just a high year over him being a massive exception to the rule. It's not "doubting Eberle" - it's just looking at the situation rationally with an eye on history and the rest of the league.
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'Generational Talent' is a hard thing to quantify. Stamkos obviously came in with a higher pedigree than Eberle, and played with better linemates right off the bat (Eberle spent a lot of games alongside Horcoff and Smyth), and Stamkos also excelled at a younger age. Just because there are lots of examples of players having an outlier season in terms of shooting percentage doesn't mean we should assume that any player not deemed a 'Generational Talent' having a great season is going to be an anomaly.
Everything I've seen from Eberle tells me he has the qualities to be the best player on the Oilers, maybe his offensive peak isn't as high as the others (though it remains to be seen), but he seems to have the best intangibles as well. If there is a player he should be modeling himself on it's probably Yzerman. Yzerman was an 80-100 point player for his first four years (putting him around 12th to 20th in league scoring) shooting at a reasonable percentage but only taking around 210 shots a season. He then broke out as a high volume shooter for 4 or 5 seasons (and probably would have some scoring titles if not for playing in the Gretzky/Lemieux era) before returning back to numbers closer to his earlier seasons.
I'm not saying the Eberle = Yzerman, only that I believe that would be the absolute best case scenario, and that I do think that he stands a chance to fill that type of role on the Oilers as both an potent offensive weapon, but also as the 2 way and leadership keystone of the franchise.