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Originally Posted by Brannigans Law
So for a 2nd half of September to early October trip you'd suggest waiting for Air Transat or Condor to drop their prices around late August early September?
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My biggest fear is always telling someone what they should or should not do when it comes to suggesting when they should pull the trigger. Mainly because it's impossible to predict if a fare will drop. Even the airlines themselves have really no idea what fares or dates they're going to drop, until they see what the demand is like, relative to what they expected. So for a person to try and predict it with any great accuracy...
There are certainly drops that occur more often than others though, and Air Transat drops to Europe are certainly one of the most common. It's often just a question of how flexible a person is in regards to dates and destinations.
Taking a look at last year from YYC around summer...
June 12 - KLM drops their October/November/December flights to Turkey.
http://yycdeals.com/calgary-to-istan...ip-after-taxes
July 24 - Air Transat dropped their early August flights to Europe
http://yycdeals.com/finally-some-che...ip-after-taxes
August 16 - Some great September deals to Czech Republic came out (I believe this was on the major airlines, not Air Transat)
http://yycdeals.com/calgary-to-pragu...ip-after-taxes
And that was really about it as far as really notable price drops. There might have been some smaller drops on Air Transat that didn't quite make it into 'crazy deal' territory.
For me personally, my thought is usually that Air Transat or Condor needs to get into 'crazy deal' territory for it to be worth choosing over the major airlines. The price differential for me would probably have to be $300 or more. But hoping for a crazy deal that meets pre-defined dates and destination criteria can be a strategy with low odds. You almost have to think of it as basing a vacation around the deal itself, rather than thinking of a vacation in advance and hoping for a deal.