Quote:
Originally Posted by Mean Mr. Mustard
They did win the presidents trophy last year, but that was largely on the back of the goaltender that the fanbase seems intent on running out of town, however the Sedins are both a year older and Kesler is in a state of perma-injured which makes the loss of Hodgson just a little bit more painful right now considering Kassian, while a good player doesn't appear to be able to slot into a top 6 role yet and now the Canucks strength at one time (their centers) now appears to be their main weakness with Sedin, Lapierre, and Malholtra being their only NHL proven centers, relative to the start of last year when there was Sedin, Kesler, Hodgson, Lapierre and Malholtra. Big hole in the second line right now until Kesler gets healthy... actually that should read, if Kesler gets healthy.
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Canucks predictions are always interesting on CP, but obviously they are generally pessimistic as to the outlook. There are five points you're making here for assuming they're about to experience a major drop-off compared to last year: the starting goalie run out of town, kesler injured, centre depth lacking, Kassian not being in the top 6, and Sedins getting older.
1. Schneider was 3rd in the league in GAA and 2nd in save percentage last year among goalies who started 30 or more games. I don't see a major step down here from Luongo, really.
2. Kesler injured is obviously a blow, but recall that last season he was a shadow of his former self in any case and was not terribly effective. Playing 2nd line minutes and quite a bit of PP, he had 49 points in 77. In other words, whoever replaces him in those minutes probably won't be a big step down in scoring. In shut-down, yes. Either way you would expect he won't be out all season.
3. Centre depth is tied to the above. This may be resolved by a Luongo trade to some extent. It is a concern, but it really depends on whether Schroeder can hang in the bigs, as I don't think there's any concern with Lapierre and Malhotra centering the 3rd and fourth lines. They're perfectly capable of doing well in those roles and they have another guy (Ebbett) who is basically a standard replacement-level 4th line C, he was unremarkable but serviceable on the 4th line last season.
4. I imagine they'll see how Kassian does in the top 6 to start, but with Sedins / Burrows and Booth XXXXXXX Raymond / Higgins / Hansen there are enough players capable of playing in the top six that it's still a decent team offensively, even if he can't make it up there and ends up on the fourth line. In a 4th line role he should be fine.
5. You never know when the Sedins will decline but their style of game is not such that it should result in that happening early on. They aren't Ovechkin, their success is largely dependent on reading plays and making smart passes. So while I doubt they contend for the Art Ross again, I think they can be counted on for PPG or so, same as last year. They're only 32.
EDIT: I should note that you didn't mention defense. From last season, they're minus Salo and Rome, and plus Jason Garrison. I think that's a net gain in terms of Garrison being better than Salo (same big shot, but Salo's age has been obviously affecting his game for a couple of years). Chris Tanev is also a dependable, though not at all flashy, positionally sound d-man who is improving. So I don't think they take a step back on defense, either.