Quote:
Originally Posted by VERVE
The question is could the Jays have a chance to win it all with their current rotation -Dickeyless. Alot of "experts" think their odds are about 12:1 which is significant enough gain to be in the area. Their chances improve with having Dickey.
The short term gain to win it all is obviously "yes, take Dickey". The long term gain is really a loss if you trade away your best prospect and the best catcher in all of baseball minor league (and don't win the WS). Though Travis D'Arnaud is a prospect and like most, it is a slight gamble of the unknown when advancing to MLB. However, given all is consistent numbers as a blue chip prospect, the scouts and experts rave about him as being extremely confident and a solid demeanor while not "fazed by his surroundings" (mmm...Mike Piazza-like?).
“For me, he’s the best catching prospect in baseball,” a scouting coordinator of a team not involved in the trade said of d’Arnaud. “He’s made lots of strides offensively. He’s one of those guys who a few years ago you would have said that he could be really good if he put it all together. Well, he’s put it all together and is really good. He’s the rare catcher who can hit in the middle of the lineup.”
“I hated to lose him,” said Marti Wolever, Philadelphia’s scouting director. “He can be the centerpiece of an organization for a long time. ...But I hope we figure out a way to get him out (back to the Phillies).” -Arangure, The New York Times, Dec 15, 2012
The Jays' window of opportunity to win is within the next 2-4 years given the ages and sucessions of their players. If Dickey was guaranteed the only player that would be moved in the 2013 season in MLB, then take Dickey. He does improve your chances. However, there are other possible trade scenarios out there and with pitchers that can fullfill the role in the rotation just as well. There will be sellers out there and the Jays should be patient.
They have an entire 2013 season to deal for an ace if they approach it with a "wait and see" attitude (and who knows) they might not have to give up an elite prospect for one. With that, I take my chances with our current rotation and hang on to Travis D'arnaud and gauge the team's progress and then make a trade for a pitcher if need be. If the Jays rotation is solid from 1-2-3, then we might not need another ace and still have TDA.
Not sure why the rush to sign Dickey is, slow it down and take a look at the 2013 season.
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Great post and logical thinking. R.A Dickey and the Mets don't wait on the Jays to decide this. And players of his caliber are not available often. Clearly I think the Jays have asked themselves if they think their 1-2-3 right now is great and they don't.
There really is little or no trade movement in MLB during the first half of the season. You lose a ton of value for a pitcher if you get him at the trade deadline. I don't see many comparable arms to Dickey being available. And if the Jays get off to a rough start, you're in a huge hole.
Great post though and reminded me why I really reallly like Travis D'Arnaud.