Quote:
Originally Posted by Gozer
You're looking at a guy like Verlander to be 5-7 WAR better than Happ.
Dickey averaged 4 WAR over the last three seasons, and it's not unreasonable to expect him to maintain that for the next three. That's an excellent addition to a team that is pushing to go deep in the playoffs. A stat-based-projection would support having him start the first playoff game for the Jays - Dickey isn't a fluke and his would-be contributions shouldn't be scoffed at.
Gose is probably worth more than Dickey in a vacuum, but we're not talking about adding Gose in his prime to Joey Bats and in his - Gose would be part of a different team by the time he's as good as we hope he could be.
I'd make this deal:
JP + Gose + any prospect who's name I don't know for Dickey with an extension for 2-3 years around $10-14M.
|
Is Dickey really a sure thing? He has put together 3 strong seasons in a row but he he is not a classic knuckle ball thrower, as mentioned above he does also rely on his 80/mph fastball. His K rate also took such an insane jump last season, there's no way to know if he could keep that going, especially having to adjust to the AL East. I don't think Dickey is a sure thing and he's such an anomaly, that it's tough to predict what next season will hold, let alone the next 3.
I think Gose is a 2WAR player at least right now. Just due to his speed, defense and arm. Rasmus 2nd half was so incredibly bad, it leaves me with little or no confidence in him going into next season. 2 years down the road the Jays are then left with a massive hole in one of the most important positions on the diamond.
In my mind, if you're willing to spend 14-15 million per season, if you're willing to give up Anthony Gose, there is better ways to spend your money.
I don't think all of AA's moves come out of left field, a lot of them we've heard prior that the Jays may have interest in that player. Even in Florida, it was pretty well documented the Jays were after Josh Johnson and AA inquired about him and it turned into something much bigger.