My predictions for today:
- The difference between 1st & 3rd will be less than 2500 votes
- The difference between 1st & 2nd will be less than 1000 votes
- NDP support drops below 8%
- Harvey Locke is elected
Some of my thoughts as to how this will happen:
- Crockatt loses a little bit of support because some people don't want an Anders-like MP. The debate on the weekend and articles such as this will help drive this.
- GOTV will strongly favour Turner. He appears to have the most loyal and enthusiastic supporters behind him.
- Some NDP supporters will realize that not only does their candidate not stand a chance, but that the Liberal and Green candidates do. I think Turner grabs a few more of these than Locke.
- The undecided votes will largely be split among Turner and Locke with Locke getting more of these. If someone was undecided until last week, I don't see much of that support going to Crockatt.
I look forward to watching the results come in.