Of course, one factor that is hard to measure is GOTV--since Canadian pollsters don't screen for "likely voters" we are left guessing as to who is likeliest to get out to the polls.
Traditionally, conservative voters are probably more dependable in this city--my guess (without seeing actual evidence) is that they would tend to be older, more affluent and generally more likely to vote without being called and reminded.
In that context, it is significant that Turner supporters seem generally a bit more engaged, and my sense is he has a pretty solid organization going. But while a solid GOTV effort could possibly do the trick for Locke at this point, it won't make up the double-digit deficit Turner faces against Crockatt. I have no idea what Locke's ground game is like--or Crockatt's for that matter, though my sense is that the Tories are usually pretty organized.
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