Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunk
Seen lots of people discredit Cameron ROI poll because of this supposed association with Locke and how wrong he was about the 2010 Mayoral race with Nenshi at only 16% with only days to go.
In fact this was the history of Mayoral polls in 2010:
September 19: Leger
McIver 43%
Higgins 28%
Nenshi 8%
everyone else less than 3%
October 5th: ROI (Bruce Cameron)
McIver 31%.
Higgins 28%
Nenshi 16%
17% undecided.
October 11th: Ipsos Ried
Higgins - 37%
McIver - 34%
Nenshi - 21%
19% undecided
October 14: Leger
McIver - 33.3%
Nenshi - 30.1%
Higgins - 29.6%
All amongst decided voters
October 18: Election
Nenshi - 39.6%
McIver - 31.7%
Higgins - 25.8%
It's not accurate to say Cameron's mayoral polls were false and therefore these ones must be too. On October 5th, Higgins and McIver were a statistical tie, with Nenshi more than 10 points back. However, the poll did fall right in line with the Nenshi trend from 3%-8%-16%-21%-30%-39% all within a short time span. Whether he worked for Higgins or not, his poll showed the early trend, so one can't simply assume because of some supposed association with Locke his poll isn't valid.
Hey, I love Turner too, but I think it's time to be realistic. The poll Evan Solomon quoted on Power and Politics (even though the source is uknown) shows a similar split. This is not the 2010 mayoral race.
I would like to see one more poll though - you never know.
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I think it could easily be argued that the poll you've bolded matches Nenshi's upward trend and falls in line with how the last two weeks unfolded.