Quote:
Originally Posted by Cowboy89
I can agree with that statement, because having Alberta MP's might bridge the knowlege gap with the Liberal party when it comes to oil and gas related issues. Over the course of history the Liberals have proven to be malleable on issues if it makes a difference for them electorally. That said it's still pretty hard to overcome an obvious historical bias against the industry coming from their party.
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It's particularly problematic since it's easy for voters to see that bias--it confirms something many already believe about the Liberal party, with some historical justification. Those kinds of image problems are very hard to repair, and unfortunately what you generously call the "malleability" of the party on certain issues looks like pandering to some voters, particularly if there's a lack of trust.
I don't mean to be down on the party--I've voted for them in the past. But it's helpful to be clear-eyed about their brand problems in this province, which go way back. Honestly, I wonder to what extent Chris Turner is benefiting from that--as a more palatable alternative to the Tories to some voters who might have supported Richardson before but are looking for a new home now given their dissatisfaction with Harper (and with their CPC choice in this byelection). We often ask "what would happen if this were a two-way race," but in a way it might be more apt to ask what factors have created an opening for the Green party in what has historically been a Tory stronghold?
One possibility is that the key factor is the local weakness of the Liberal brand, which is just an unacceptable alternative to a lot of voters. If that's so then the discussion of "vote-splitting" changes a little, since some Turner voters will have been Tories, not Liberals, in the past. They would thus be no more likely to vote Liberal if Turner drops out than if he doesn't.
Keep in mind, even if Locke wins this riding, he will do so with a very narrow plurality. This byelection has been more about the collapse of the Tory vote than an increase in the progressive vote. Lee Richardson got (if I recall correctly) 55% of the vote in Calgary Centre last time around.