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Originally Posted by PoliSciStudent
Grenier has shown he can be quite accurate when polling is right. Polling in the US were correct, polls in Canada have been wrong. How was Grenier suppose to predict a large PC victory when polls showed the Wildrose in the lead?
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Grenier's other challenge is that what Nate Silver does is easier to do when, for the most part, all of a state's electoral vote goes to a certain candidate and polls are done 14-times more often then they are in Canada and done by state. For Grenier to be able to do it the way Nate Silver does, we'd need reliable polling in each constituency. In my presidential pool, three of us all were right on 50/50 states. Nate Silver isn't much an oracle, he just computes data and presents it in a novel way.
Grenier's only hope in the Alberta Election would have been, again, access to local constituency polls. My own internal polling was spot on. The media polls, too, were accurate snapshots at that time. They matched with my internal polling when they were in the field, as did the actual result.