Quote:
Originally Posted by jtfrogger
From my perspective, what you are saying here sounds a lot more like the people that were saying that you shouldn't support Nenshi because the best chance of preventing McIver from becoming mayor is to vote for Barb Higgins. There are still 11 days to the by-election. The poll that just come out was done approximately two weeks before the by-election date. If I recall correctly, about two weeks before the mayoral election, McIver & Higgins were a close 1-2 with Nenshi soundly behind them but gaining.
Turner is still a long shot, but he has significant momentum on his side. I would not rule him out.
If you are talking about swaying NDP voters, that makes a lot of sense. Meades is not strong enough to win this election.
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I kind of hope that Turner loses just so we can stop comparing every election to that one. I get that he was in third place, but there were many factors, one being that other candidates dropped out and threw their support behind him. If we're going to look back at past elections to gauge what might happen here, we can't ignore the past two provincial campaigns.
In 2008 many people thought that Stelmach was in for a beat down. Instead he won a huge majority. Just this past spring people thought that the PCs were finished after 41 years. Instead progressive voters voted for them, even though they aren't as progressive as many would care to acknowledge. We know from these (and many, many other examples) that the polls are often wrong. I have little doubt that this last one is as well. It's not my personal preference, but polls constantly don't account for the satisfied voter. I think that Crockatt wins if the election is today.
Yes, that could definitely change. She could make some terrible errors, and if she keeps skipping forums it might well hurt her. I think that the way that riding has been won before (with Joe Clark) wasn't about a three way race though, it was a coalition, however informal, to dump Eric Loewther. It's certainly possible, and I hope it happens with a hard fought three way campaign (which is truthfully a two way race with third place having a lot of ground to make up, otherwise I suppose its a four way race), but much more difficult to avoid splitting the same targeted voters.