Given what we know of voting trends and the number of eligible voters (80K) and turnout which should be less than the 49K in the last election (
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calgary_Centre). Joan's current standing of 32% is essentially 15000 which might be less given that I'm using last turn out as the base and the recent Forum poll.
Based on what we know from the Forum polling numbers can either Locke (currently at ~ 147000) or Turner (currently at ~ 11270) break the 17K voters plateau to ensure a victory? I think the swing has to be the 8K supporters from the last election who supported the NDP. It's looking less likely that the NDP will able to improve on their numbers from the past election, given how bad their candidate and campaign has performed so far. I doubt that many progressive Calgarians will vote straight NDP this time around without the Organe Crush influence, so I guess the big question is which way do these voters swing?