Quote:
Originally Posted by c.t.ner
Yup, she pulled out after confirming last night. 
Pretty weak. I don't think she or the conservative brain trust expected the riding to be this tight. I think they underestimated the lose of 'Red Tory' support and the changing demographics of the riding. I also don't think that the CPC expected a mobilized and organized opposition from the Greens and Liberals.
I think with things going the way they are, Crockatt's vote will be about 30%-33%. I think the CPC's have already lost too many 'Red Tories' to carry them in the 40% range and overal it's got that 'sinking ship' candidate vibe. Similar to what Barb Higgins had in the municipal election.
I think the question remains who of Locke and Turner has the potential to hit the 34% or higher ceiling in the polls? Or which one of those two will get the most voters out on election day.
I hope there is a poll released next week as it'll be a solid, solid gauge of what's happening. |
Add to that the fact that she is a "Blue Tory" as well. That would be fine in some ridings in the city, but not likely Calgary Centre. At the very least it will cost some votes based on that factor alone.
Turner needs a 50% increase to hit 34%. Can it be done? I guess so. Logically though, if the progressives were actually willing to work together for the common good, they would back Locke and make it more of a certainty.
To those who will undoubtedly ask, yes I would say the same thing if the polling was reversed. Its the sensible thing to do. Even though it was hard to do, I was one of the people telling one of the mayoralty candidates to drop out and throw his support to Nenshi. Of course no one wants to do that. There are hours and hours of hard work and money that go into these things. At the end of the day though, being pragmatic and realistic is important. It would suck if Turner plays Ralph Nader here....which isn't my line, but it sure is appropriate.