Quote:
Originally Posted by c.t.ner
Yup, she pulled out after confirming last night. 
Pretty weak. I don't think she or the conservative brain trust expected the riding to be this tight. I think they underestimated the lose of 'Red Tory' support and the changing demographics of the riding. I also don't think that the CPC expected a mobilized and organized opposition from the Greens and Liberals.
I think with things going the way they are, Crockatt's vote will be about 30%-33%. I think the CPC's have already lost too many 'Red Tories' to carry them in the 40% range and overal it's got that 'sinking ship' candidate vibe. Similar to what Barb Higgins had in the municipal election.
I think the question remains who of Locke and Turner has the potential to hit the 34% or higher ceiling in the polls? Or which one of those two will get the most voters out on election day.
I hope there is a poll released next week as it'll be a solid, solid gauge of what's happening. |
Yeah, that would be nice.
It also is interesting to see the race tightening--I am not sure how much of that is Richardson being a "red tory" and attracting more soft Conservative support than Crockatt can, or simply that some voters see a by-election as a low-risk way to send a message to Harper. If it's the latter, this could get interesting if the Green or Liberal candidates gain some momentum.
If voter turnout is generally low, which would make sense, this thing may come down to which candidate has the best GOTV operation.