Quote:
Originally Posted by Slava
I went 358-180 for Obama. I think that he wins Florida and gave him Arizona as well (which is a long-shot for sure, but I thought it would be fun to watch. Realistically if you swap out Arizona I think that he gets 347. That sees Obama win all of the toss-up states.
I think that Nate Silver is just way over-rated though. If he does anything like what 308.com does here in Canada (both aggregate polls and suggest that this methodology is somehow more accurate) then we need look no further than the last federal election where 308 was way off.
I think that the polls in the US are under representing some significant categories of voters as well: women, youth, minorities and voters who are actually just quite happy with the way things are going in the country. Couple that with a decent economy, the bounce from hurricane Sandy and the fact that Romney just isn't very liked despite campaigning for the past four years and you have a pretty safe call.
One other point about the polls is that everyone points to the national polls as somehow pointing to a close election. CPers who have followed recognize that they're meaningless though! Romney could sweep entire states like Kentucky, Alabama, Georgia and get every single vote from every single voter. He still gets the 8,9 and 16 electoral votes respectively and thats it; so while the polls would show some amazing percentage its a giant moot point.
Anyway, there is my long-winded explanation of why I am going with a stronger than "expected" Obama win.
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I'm kinda the opposite, I think that Romney's results will surprise, I'm not calling for a Romney win at all, but I think that his message has resonated to an extent, I also think that Obama's campaign has been a lot more flaccid then the last one and he doesn't have the same Obama or death voter base happening.
Either way America loses.