Quote:
Originally Posted by kirant
I think that's a currently skewed stat based on how early Kesler jumped in. Kesler was given a permanent NHL position at 21, limited in playtime to pretty much a PK expert (~10 min/game EV). Similar to Manny Malholtra last year, it's not that he didn't produce because he couldn't...but that he was in a situation where no player would produce well. When he developed into a real two-way forward and reached his top potential, in my mind (15+ minutes/game EV + PP), he has an averaged scoring rate of 59.6 points/82 games.
I don't think Reinhart will show the same talent and be a permanent fixture next year, while playing 50% of the PK time (Kesler had about 2:30 in PK/game in his first year with 5:09 in PK/game for the team). I also don't think he'll have the same potential of being a 60 point forward, even if he played second fiddle to the Sedins.
I'd argue Reinhart has an outside chance of 50 points and is probably his absolute ceiling. The same way I think we could say Brayden McNabb of the Sabres has an outside chance of a top pairing player or Jankowski has an outside chance of being, as Feaster put it, "the best player in the draft". The realistic top end I think Reinhart can reach though is between 30-40 points. With no real objective measuring stick and nothing but my arbitrary guessing, I'd say he's likely to reach that potential and be a 15G-20A forward with a penchant for getting key goals.
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According to QuantHockey less 70% of NHL players record 100-points in an entire career.
http://www.quanthockey.com/Distribut...reerPoints.php
The average PPG production in the NHL is roughly 0.4. If you estimate that climbs to 0.5 if isolated to the forward position that means the average NHL forward is putting up less then 40-points per season (most don't play 80-games).
In fact last season only about 115 forwards (with 50 or more games) put up a .6 (50-point pace) or better PPG average. That is less then 4 per team, or roughly 30%.
In terms of players that are actually healthy enough to do it: there were 95 last season that actually reached 50-points (about 25%).
So if you consider that 70% of NHL players never stick around long enough to earn 100-points in a career, and for those that do only 25% of them actually put up 50-points in a given season (let alone consistently), then yes Reinhart is a stretch to be consistent 50-point forward.
But then again so is
every NHL prospect outside of the few elite.
Bottom line is Reinhart looks like he could be an everyday NHLer. That is a win for a 3-rounder. And there is no reason to stereotype him as a bottom 6 guy. This isn't Bouma we are talking about. Reinhart has put up good offensive numbers during his career.
I think the chances are good he ends up capping as a 3-line guy. But that said there isn't any reason to project a ceiling on him at this point.