Quote:
Originally Posted by fotze
Some studies show that being born earlier in the year is better for development. I know this isn't really what he was saying about bust, but is related a bit and is interesting. The problem is a developmental one. The late bloomers will fall further behind. The best kids get selected for the best teams. Those teams play more, get access to better coaching, better opportunities and so forth.
http://ingoalmag.com/science/want-to...your-birthday/
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/1...40410600908001Abstract
The aim of this study was to examine the relationships among biological maturity, physical size, relative age (i.e. birth date), and selection into a male Canadian provincial age-banded ice hockey team. In 2003, 619 male ice hockey players aged 14 – 15 years attended Saskatchewan provincial team selection camps, 281 of whom participated in the present study. Data from 93 age-matched controls were obtained from the Saskatchewan Pediatric Bone Mineral Accrual Study (1991 – 1997). During the initial selection camps, birth dates, heights, sitting heights, and body masses were recorded. Age at peak height velocity, an indicator of biological maturity, was determined in the controls and predicted in the ice hockey players. Data were analysed using one-way analysis of variance, logistic regression, and a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The ice hockey players selected for the final team were taller, heavier, and more mature (P < 0.05) than both the unselected players and the age-matched controls. Furthermore, age at peak height velocity predicted (P < 0.05) being selected at the first and second selection camps. The birth dates of those players selected for the team were positively skewed, with the majority of those selected being born in the months January to June. In conclusion, team selectors appear to preferentially select early maturing male ice hockey players who have birth dates early in the selection year.
|
You misinterpreting what the article is trying to say.
The article says that people who have earlier birth dates are less likely to succeed in sports because they will be less mature than the people they are competing against. Therefore, even at a young age, they will be given less opportunity and advantage due to the false perception that they are smaller and weaker than their contemporaries. In reality, they're just younger.
If an athlete has gotten to the draft and development stage, it's arguable that a younger athlete is less likely to be a bust as they have more room to mature.
That being said, the younger an athlete is at the drafting stage, the more you rely on potential and the less you rely on what is proven at an adult level. Jankowski is high risk/high reward, but I don't think that's a shocking revelation for anyone.