Quote:
Originally Posted by Textcritic
Furthermore, I would think that the numbers skew towards the CHL as a result of how minor hockey is organized in Canada. It was mentioned that the CHL produces many more "high-end" players, but that is likely a product of the decisions these kids and their parents make when they are already 14 or 15-years-old. The simple reason the CHL seems to produce more high end players is because elite level prospects are primarily already identified and drafted into Major Juniour at the age of 16—long before most of them contemplate entry into college or university.
I expect that if NCAA were to include 16 and 17-year-old kids in their programs, then the development rates would level out considerably even more so. The point is that the CHL is currently the only elite level training programme for kids this age, so by the time a large number of them are eligible for NCAA entry, their course has already been set.
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I agree with your points except the bolded part. I would bet that almost every elite level prospect and their parents would have contemplated entry into college or university by the time they have been identified and drafted into Major Junior. It's a very much an informed process nowadays. By the time I entered high school, I have thought about university. I would assume that most kids entering high school nowadays would have thought about going to university or college. It would be silly to assume that high level prospects have never given the university or college route some thought by the time they are identified and drafted into Major Junior.