Not much of a cost spread between the four bikes. My thought is, which bike do you like best? At this price point the components aren't going to make a huge difference. The most important thing with these groups is to never cross chain - I.e be pushing the small ring on the front and rear, or the big in the front and rear. This puts lots of strain on the drive train. Given your climate make sure you perform main thence and use the right mix of lube.
Given you had one bike stolen, it might make the most sense to go with the cheapest option for now in case this one gets stolen as well.
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